ILO Lowers 2025 Service Creation Forecast

📰 Executive Summary

The International Labour Organization (ILO) has updated its global employment forecast for 2025, reducing the projected number of jobs to be created from 60 million to 53 million. This downward adjustment reflects a revised, less optimistic outlook for global economic growth, underscoring concerns about slowing economic momentum and its impact on job creation worldwide

📊 Key Highlights

• Global Employment Growth: Revised to 1.5% in 2025, down from 1.7%
• Job Creation Forecast: 53 million jobs projected, a decrease of 7 million from earlier estimates.
• Economic Growth Projection: Expected at 2.8%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2%.
• US Consumer Demand: Approximately 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand, with 56 million concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Labour Income Share: Declined globally from 53% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024.
• High-Skilled Employment: Women leading the trend, with the share of women in high-skilled occupations rising from 21.2% in 2013 to 23.2% in 2023.
• Educational Mismatch: As of 2022, only 47.7% of workers held qualifications that appropriately matched their job requirements.

📊 Detailed Analysis

1. Global Employment Growth

• Revised Growth Rate: The global employment growth rate has been adjusted from 1.7% to 1.5% for 2025.
• Implications: This reduction indicates a deceleration in job creation, potentially leading to higher unemployment rates and increased economic challenges.

2. Economic Growth Projections

• GDP Growth: Global GDP growth is expected to be 2.8%, down from the previous estimate of 3.2%.
• Factors Influencing Decline: Persistent geopolitical conflicts, shifting economic alliances, and heightened trade tensions have contributed to the downgraded economic outlook

3. Employment Tied to US Consumer Demand

• Vulnerable Jobs: Approximately 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand.
• Regional Concentration: The Asia-Pacific region accounts for the majority of these jobs, with 56 million positions at risk due to economic uncertainties.

4. Labour Income Share Trends

• Declining Share: The labour income share has decreased from 53% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024.
• Economic Impact: This decline signifies a reduction in workers’ earnings relative to overall economic output, potentially exacerbating income inequality.

5. Gender Disparities in Employment

• High-Skilled Occupations: The share of women employed in high-skilled occupations rose from 21.2% in 2013 to 23.2% in 2023.
• Occupational Segregation: Despite progress, women remain underrepresented in sectors such as construction and overrepresented in clerical and caregiving roles.

6. Educational Mismatch in the Labour Market

• Qualification Gaps: As of 2022, only 47.7% of workers held qualifications that appropriately matched their job requirements.
• Implications: This mismatch indicates a need for improved education and training programs to align skills with market demands.

🎯 Final Recommendations

✅ To Governments:

1. Expand Reskilling Initiatives
2. Update Labour Market Regulations for AI
3. Promote Gender Parity in STEM & Trade Jobs
4. Incentivize Inclusive Economic Growth

✅ To Employers:

• Embrace flexible work policies
• Implement AI-ready job structures
• Provide on-the-job upskilling and education

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